Brent crude has surged past $110 a barrel after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely froze, with West Texas Intermediate trading near the same level. By early Monday (9 March), Brent was changing hands around $114–$115, more than 20% above Friday’s close, according to Associated Press and exchange pricing. That spike set a risk‑off tone across markets to start the week. (apnews.com)

The escalation is geopolitical and immediate. US and Israeli airstrikes hit multiple targets across Iran over the weekend, including fuel depots, while Tehran has named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Supreme Leader - a signal of continuity from hardliners. In Washington, President Donald Trump called the surge in crude a “very small price to pay” in a Sunday post, arguing prices would fall once the Iran nuclear threat is “destroyed.” (apnews.com)

Asian equities tumbled on the open. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 7% in early trade, while South Korea’s Kospi slid around 7.6%; Korea’s market has already triggered circuit breakers in recent sessions amid the sell‑off. The weakness reflects economies heavily exposed to imported energy and higher risk‑free rates as inflation fears resurface. (apnews.com)

At the centre of the shock is Hormuz. Roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil typically passes through the strait, and traffic has “all but stopped” as war‑risk insurers cancel cover and premiums jump, leaving many vessels idled. Reuters reporting indicates war‑risk hull premiums have leapt to about 3% of a tanker’s insured value - roughly $7.5m on a $250m ship - dramatically lifting delivered energy costs. (apnews.com)

London isn’t immune. The FTSE 100 fell earlier in the week as investors dumped travel and banks but bought defence and energy; BAE Systems rallied while BP and Shell gained on stronger crude. That rotation reflects a familiar playbook: margin pressure for fuel‑intensive sectors, a bid for cash‑generative energy majors, and a premium for defence earnings visibility. (theguardian.com)

Gas is part of the story. UK and European benchmark contracts spiked roughly 40% at one point as QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared force majeure following attacks on facilities - a blow for buyers who rely on Qatari volumes and Hormuz transit. Short‑term, that reprices power and industrial input costs, even if winter is behind us. (theguardian.com)

For UK macro, the direction of travel is awkward. Analysts now expect the Bank of England to be more cautious on near‑term rate cuts, with market pricing swinging sharply in recent days. The MPC meets on 19 March; energy’s pass‑through into CPI could delay the timing - and size - of any easing. (uk.finance.yahoo.com)

Households will feel this at the forecourt first. The RAC said average petrol rose by nearly 2.5p per litre since Saturday and diesel by more than 3p as crude spiked; recent RAC data put typical UK unleaded around 136p in early March after January’s lows. Fuel duty remains frozen at 52.95p per litre, cushioning part of the move but not the wholesale surge. (media.rac.co.uk)

SMEs face tougher arithmetic. Fuel accounts for roughly 20–25% of operating costs in road haulage, so sustained diesel strength tends to pass quickly into delivery surcharges and, ultimately, shelf prices. Energy‑intensive manufacturers were still nursing scars from the last spike; ONS data show output in energy‑intensive industries sitting at multi‑decade lows through late 2024. (transportoperator.co.uk)

Aviation and travel are in the cross‑hairs. Jet fuel has climbed rapidly and major carriers warn of higher fares if prices hold; UK‑listed travel names were among the biggest fallers when the shock first hit. Corporate travel budgets, events and tourism‑exposed SMEs should plan for pricier tickets and potential schedule disruption. (forbes.com)

What next hinges on Hormuz. Goldman Sachs has warned that if flows remain depressed through March, crude could revisit or exceed prior peaks - with refined products leading any squeeze. Some sell‑side scenarios now point to $150 oil in a prolonged shutdown, which would deepen the inflation hit even as growth cools. (theguardian.com)

What we’re watching this week: any sign that naval escorts and US‑backed insurance can restore safe passage for tankers; whether war‑risk cover stabilises; and the pace of any gas price retracement if Qatar’s LNG volumes restart. For UK readers, the key macro waypoint is the Bank of England decision on Thursday 19 March. (axios.com)