Oil delivered one of the wildest sessions on record, spiking to about $115 a barrel early on Monday before talk of an emergency G7 finance ministers’ meeting and a possible International Energy Agency stock draw cooled the surge. Prices stayed well above pre‑conflict levels until comments from US President Donald Trump, read as a step away from a long war, flipped sentiment; by the Asia open, crude was hovering near $90, below Friday’s close.

The speed and scale of the move reflected barrels in the Gulf being shut in, with several producers reporting slower output and some declaring force majeure, the clause that removes liability when events beyond a supplier’s control prevent delivery. With flows through the Strait of Hormuz already constrained, traders rapidly repriced the risk that fewer cargos would clear one of energy’s tightest chokepoints.

The mooted 300 million‑barrel release would be huge by historical standards-more than double the record intervention in April 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and roughly a quarter of emergency stocks, according to the International Energy Agency. Set against around 104 million barrels a day of global consumption, however, it equates to less than three days of demand and about a fortnight of normal Hormuz traffic-enough to steady nerves, not solve the shock.

G7 ministers ultimately held fire, a tacit acknowledgement that logistics, security and insurance matter as much as headline supply. Would naval escorts through Hormuz materially lift volumes, and would revamped war‑risk cover truly unlock sailings when drones and missiles occasionally threaten tankers? For traders, those practical details now drive price action as much as communiqués.

Washington has also floated limited sanctions waivers to channel additional Russian barrels to market-politically charged given the war in Ukraine, but part of the menu nonetheless. Meanwhile, China, India and South Korea remain the key buyers of Gulf crude and gas, and US gas cargoes originally Europe‑bound are reportedly executing Atlantic U‑turns for the Panama Canal to meet Asian demand.

Knock‑ons spread quickly through refined products. Jet fuel is priced off crude plus a refinery margin; when both rise, airlines either draw on hedges, trim capacity or add surcharges. UK travellers should expect firmer fares if disruption persists into the spring flying programme as carriers protect yields while managing fuel procurement.

Fertiliser is another pressure point. Ammonia and urea rely on hydrocarbons as feedstock and energy, so Gulf disruptions tighten availability and complicate shipping. British farmers facing tight margins could encounter narrower purchasing windows and higher input volatility, with potential pass‑through to supermarket shelves later in the year if costs cannot be absorbed.

After the G7 session, the chancellor told the House of Commons that the fastest relief for consumers would come from a military de‑escalation. Markets have broadly mapped that message onto President Trump’s remarks. Even if a ceasefire arrived tomorrow, damaged infrastructure and tangled routes would take weeks to unwind, keeping a risk premium in place.

US politics remains a swing factor. Petrol prices are a visible barometer for President Trump’s supporters, and a sharp rise typically narrows his policy room. That electoral sensitivity helps explain the emphasis on marginal supply options rather than relying solely on emergency stockpiles.

For UK investors and SMEs, the immediate task is risk control. Re‑test cashflows for two to four weeks of elevated fuel, freight and fertiliser costs, speak to suppliers about delivery schedules and insurance cover, and review hedging so exposure is deliberate, not accidental. The war has not stopped; markets are calmer, but volatility is still the base case.