Scottish Ministers have signed a fresh order for the Firth of Clyde that takes effect on 14 February 2026 and runs to 13 February 2029. The annual 14 February–30 April shutdown in key cod‑spawning grounds continues, and only vessels with a valid historic track record will be allowed to operate in the area outside those dates. The order applies to British‑flagged boats and defines the restricted waters by coordinates, as in previous instruments. ([legislation.gov.uk](Link

For skippers, the biggest change is access control. From February 2026, commercial fishing within the Clyde will be limited to vessels that can show they fished there between 1 January 2023 and 31 December 2025, alongside tightly controlled scientific activity. That closes the door to new entrants during the period of the order and formalises a “track record” rule that industry has debated for months. ([gov.scot](Link

The seasonal closure is designed to protect spawning cod and has been in place, in one form or another, for over two decades. Since 2022, exemptions were removed after evidence suggested seabed disturbance within 10 metres could disrupt spawning, and the closed area was made more targeted by about 28% to focus on suitable substrates. The 2026 instrument continues this approach. ([gov.scot](Link

What does this mean for cash flow on deck? The Scottish Government’s business assessment estimates the closure reduces creel vessel landings by roughly 5–7% and trims annual profits by 19–26% on average. Those are material numbers for small, family‑run businesses operating on tight margins. ([gov.scot](Link

Across the fleet, activity that was previously possible under exemptions has already fallen since 2022. Between 2018 and 2021 the affected fleet landed about 5,800 tonnes a year worth around £13.5 million; from 2022 to 2024 that averaged about 4,350 tonnes valued at £11.9 million. The extended closure window means operators will continue to displace effort to alternative grounds. ([gov.scot](Link

Processors are unlikely to see a national price shock for Nephrops, according to government analysis, but local supply can tighten where buyers source directly from Clyde boats. The BRIA notes the closure’s footprint equates to roughly 1% of Scotland’s Nephrops value and tonnage pre‑2022, yet warns of short‑term pinch points for nearby factories and wholesalers when effort is displaced. ([gov.scot](Link

Ports appear resilient in aggregate. Government modelling finds no single harbour is consistently reliant on landings from affected vessels above the share you would expect from an 11‑week closure, cutting the risk of a single‑port shock. Even so, services from fuel to engineering typically feel a dip during the shut period. ([gov.scot](Link

The science track also shifts. From February 2026 the Marine Directorate will run a three‑year targeted scientific programme across the Clyde, working with local fishers, deploying REM where appropriate and exploring real‑time closures if aggregations of juvenile or spawning cod are detected. That is intended to build evidence that can support adaptive management rather than a fixed seasonal template. ([gov.scot](Link

Not everyone is convinced. Consultation analysis shows a majority of respondents opposed continuing the closure unchanged, with concerns about alignment to spawning behaviour and the role of Nephrops bycatch. Separately, the Sustainable Inshore Fisheries Trust has questioned the scientific basis for the 2026 order in a letter to Holyrood’s Rural Affairs and Islands Committee. ([gov.scot](Link

Compliance matters. Breaching a prohibition under the Sea Fish (Conservation) Act 1967 remains a criminal offence, with fines up to £50,000 on summary conviction and unlimited on indictment; courts can also order forfeiture of fish and gear. These penalties have been flagged consistently in previous Clyde orders and continue to frame enforcement. ([legislation.gov.uk](Link

For fleets and buyers, the calendar is clear. The 2026 closure runs from 14 February to 30 April, as in recent years, with fishing outside that window restricted to vessels holding the required 2023–25 track record. Processors planning spring procurement should expect continued displacement of effort and keep an eye on May landings as grounds reopen. ([legislation.gov.uk](Link

The politics will run alongside the science. Ministers argue the closure plus the new evidence programme is the best route to recovery after years of limited progress, while industry wants measures that better reflect on‑the‑water realities. Market Pulse UK will track the data as it lands - from REM outputs to landings trends - to judge whether the 2026–2029 regime delivers for both stock and business. ([gov.scot](Link