In the Commons on 2 March, Sir Keir Starmer said the UK will not join US–Israeli offensive strikes on Iran, arguing the government “does not believe in regime change from the skies”. He authorised limited US use of British bases for defensive action against Iranian missile infrastructure, stressing decisions rest on law and the protection of British lives. (ft.com)

Downing Street’s stance evolved over the weekend: an early US request to use RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia was declined, but permission was granted on Sunday night for a specific defensive mission after Iran’s regional missile and drone barrages. Starmer also referenced drones fired at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus; officials reported minor damage and moved families as a precaution. (news.sky.com)

Ministers say any UK role must be grounded in collective self-defence with a published legal summary, and they underline that Britain is not joining offensive action. The stated objective is to deter further attacks on allies and reduce direct risks to British citizens in the region. (gov.uk)

Political reaction was swift. Conservatives accused Starmer of weakness and delay; Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey demanded a Commons vote to prevent mission creep. Green voices urged unequivocal opposition to US–Israeli action and full parliamentary scrutiny before any deeper UK involvement. (ft.com)

For British nationals, the immediate risk is disruption rather than evacuation. The government has asked people across Gulf states to register their presence; ministers estimate around 300,000 UK citizens are in the region and say just over 100,000 have already registered for updates as contingency planning continues. (itv.com)

Markets took notice. Brent crude moved above $80 a barrel and European gas prices jumped by more than 40% amid reports of disrupted LNG output and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European equities slipped, with travel names under pressure as flights were cancelled or rerouted. (theguardian.com)

Defence names were in demand. BAE Systems rose about 7% as investors rotated toward missile-defence exposure; peers including Rheinmetall, Thales and Leonardo also advanced on expectations of higher spend. (lse.co.uk)

Safe-haven flows supported gold, with spot prices up roughly 1% near $5,330 an ounce and US futures higher, reflecting a broader risk-off bid across commodities and FX. (brecorder.com)

For corporates, three near‑term channels dominate: energy inputs, shipping and air travel. With tanker movements curtailed and some carriers pausing Hormuz transits, logistics and insurance costs are likely to rise until lanes normalise. (theguardian.com)

For rate watchers, pricier energy muddies the Bank of England’s path. Money‑market odds of a March cut have already faded as inflation risks re‑emerge via fuel, fares and freight. Finance teams should re‑run cashflow and margin scenarios on higher energy and transport costs. (theguardian.com)

Allies have noticed London’s limits. President Trump voiced disappointment over base access, exposing a rare public rift; Starmer’s team argues a lawful defensive mandate best serves the alliance while protecting UK interests. (ft.com)

The strategic backdrop remains volatile. US–Israeli strikes at the weekend killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting a wave of Iranian missiles and drones across the region. A flood of fabricated imagery has followed, so treat viral footage with care. (apnews.com)