President Donald Trump revived his attack on NATO hours after a private White House meeting with Secretary‑General Mark Rutte, writing that the alliance “wasn’t there when we needed them” during the Iran war centred on the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about one‑fifth of global oil. The White House offered no detailed readout of the talks, according to AP News. (apnews.com)

Rutte later described the exchange as “very frank” and “very open” in comments to CNN, while AP reported that press secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged Mr Trump has discussed leaving the alliance. In a separate post, the president also revived his Greenland gripe. (thedailybeast.com)

For markets, timing is awkward. The two‑week US–Iran ceasefire announced on Tuesday pushed Brent below $100 in one of the biggest single‑day drops since 1991, before prices steadied as traders questioned whether tanker flows would resume at scale. By mid‑week Brent hovered near $97. (axios.com)

Shipping and insurance costs remain the brake on any swift normalisation. London’s Lloyd’s‑centred war‑risk market is quoting sharply higher premia for Gulf transits: McGill & Partners told the Guardian that in some cases premiums have jumped to 3.5%–7.5% of a vessel’s value; Caixin Global reported typical add‑ons rising from 0.25% to around 1%; and broker Lockton says 200%–300% increases across marine and aviation classes. (theguardian.com)

For UK households and SMEs, cheaper crude isn’t an instant bill cut. Ofgem’s domestic price cap fell by roughly 7% on 1 April, but Cornwall Insight’s latest modelling points to a July rebound towards £1,930–£1,973 as March’s wholesale spike feeds through. Ofgem is due to set the July level on 27 May. (ofgem.gov.uk)

What to do now: energy‑intensive manufacturers should revisit second‑half hedges and diesel budgets; importers with Gulf exposure should plan for elevated war‑risk surcharges and longer routings into Q2; and SMEs on variable tariffs can use any dips in forward curves to ladder partial cover rather than try to bottom‑tick prices.

Policy backstop matters. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has committed to raise UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, which the Commons Library estimates implies around £6.4bn extra in that year. AP has described the plan as the biggest sustained increase since the Cold War. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)

Even as rhetoric hardens, there are US guardrails: a 2023 law bars any president from unilaterally quitting NATO without an Act of Congress or a two‑thirds Senate vote, limiting immediate exit risk despite threats. The Washington Post and AP both note the restriction. (washingtonpost.com)

Near‑term price direction depends on ships, not statements. Analysts told Axios that large‑scale resumption of Hormuz traffic isn’t guaranteed during the truce, which helps explain why war‑risk premia remain sticky even as spot crude eased. (axios.com)

Bottom line for UK readers: the ceasefire has bought time but not certainty. If tanker flows normalise and insurance costs retreat, inflation relief creeps back into view; if not, expect a pricier summer for households, hauliers and energy‑intensive firms alike.