Downing Street confirmed that on Friday, 12 December 2025, Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever to discuss migration, security and growth. On Ukraine, both leaders backed sustained economic pressure on Russia and explored options that include using the value of immobilised Russian sovereign assets to meet Kyiv’s financing needs, according to the official readout.

The timing matters. The EU has moved to freeze roughly €210 billion of Russian central bank assets in Europe on an open‑ended basis, removing a recurring renewal risk and clearing the way for a large loan to Ukraine that could reach up to €165 billion, with leaders expected to settle details at a 18 December summit.

Belgium sits in the middle of this story. Brussels‑based Euroclear holds most of the immobilised funds-about €185 billion by recent estimates-and is now the target of a lawsuit filed by Russia’s central bank in a Moscow court. Belgian officials have pushed for strong legal shields so the country is not uniquely exposed if counter‑claims bite, a point echoed in EU briefings.

So far, Europe has tapped only the profits on these immobilised assets. EU legal acts adopted in May 2024 require central securities depositories to remit net “windfall” earnings to support Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction, with biannual transfers. Euroclear reports it provisioned €4 billion under that regime in 2024 and that related interest income generated €1.7 billion of Belgian corporate tax.

Those earnings won’t stay constant. As rates edge lower, the stream shrinks: Euroclear’s first‑quarter 2025 update showed interest on sanctioned Russian assets down 7.5% versus Q1 2024. That helps explain why policymakers are designing a loan backed by the asset base rather than relying solely on future profit flows.

Legal risk is not theoretical. Moscow has branded any use of its state assets unlawful and vowed to contest in national and international courts while pursuing damages against Euroclear. For investors, headlines will come and go; the real market signal would be any ruling that narrows or reinterprets sovereign‑immunity protections in this context.

What does this mean for businesses? Expect tighter sanctions screening on payments that touch Belgian market infrastructure, occasional settlement delays if counterparties are flagged, and more documentation requests from banks. A mid‑sized Midlands metals exporter selling into Central Europe, for instance, may need to allow extra time for customer checks and export‑control attestations embedded in trade finance paperwork.

Budget planning is also in scope. If EU leaders lock in the loan this month, Ukraine’s budget support into 2026–27 becomes more predictable, stabilising procurement cycles in areas like construction materials, medical supplies and IT services tied to donor‑funded projects. FX teams should keep hedge ratios under review given shifting rate‑cut expectations in the euro area and the UK.

Migration cooperation was part of the Downing Street agenda too, with commitments to deepen work on returns, readmissions and law‑enforcement coordination. For logistics and staffing managers, the test is whether this translates into smoother operational policing on Channel routes rather than new layers of paperwork.

Near‑term watch‑list: what legal guarantees Belgium secures, the final design of the “reparations loan”, and how windfall proceeds are allocated in 2026. Clear decisions at the 18 December European Council would reduce headline risk for Euroclear and its clients; drift would keep compliance costs and uncertainty elevated into the new year.