Downing Street says the Prime Minister spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday, 24 March, focusing on Iran’s strikes and how to keep trade moving. London reiterated support for Riyadh and flagged more defensive kit heading to the region, while updating on UK planning for the Strait of Hormuz and efforts to keep goods flowing through the chokepoint. (gov.uk)

Officials also referenced last week’s allied statement on reopening the strait, part of a wider push to stabilise commercial traffic rather than escalate the conflict. It’s an early signal that the UK wants to pair diplomacy with practical shipping solutions to restore safe passage. (axios.com)

Why this matters for prices is straightforward: the EIA estimates Hormuz handled roughly 20.9 million barrels per day of oil in 2023-about 20% of world liquids demand-and close to one‑fifth of global LNG trade. Limited bypass capacity via Saudi and UAE pipelines-about 6.5 million b/d at nameplate with only a few million b/d spare-means even partial disruption props up energy premia. (eia.gov)

Markets have reacted accordingly. Brent pushed back into three‑digit territory on 9 March, while European gas benchmark TTF briefly topped the mid‑€50s/MWh the same week. The UK joined an IEA‑coordinated 400 million barrel stock release to cool oil volatility, contributing 13.5 million barrels-helpful at the margin, but it doesn’t fix a closed waterway. (lemonde.fr)

Insurance is tightening. London’s Joint War Committee expanded its Listed Areas on 3 March (JWLA‑033), pushing more Gulf waters into high‑risk territory. On the commercial side, Hapag‑Lloyd imposed a War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per TEU ($3,500 for reefers/specials) and paused bookings to several Upper Gulf ports; other liners issued similar curbs as P&I clubs curtailed war cover. Expect higher landed costs and sporadic capacity. (lmalloyds.com)

Workarounds are emerging. Carriers are reviving bonded land‑bridge moves from east‑of‑Hormuz ports-Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Oman’s Sohar-into Jebel Ali or Khalifa for clearance and onward distribution. CMA CGM has started reopening some import bookings on that basis, and industry groups report wider adoption across forwarders. Assume extra days in transit and higher drayage and handling fees while these corridors bed in. (cma-cgm.com)

For UK exporters, exposure is meaningful even if indirect. Department for Business and Trade factsheets show UK exports in the year to Q2 2025 were £15.8bn to the UAE, £14.2bn to Saudi Arabia and £4.6bn to Qatar, with Kuwait at £2.3bn, Bahrain £0.9bn and Oman about £1.1bn. That’s roughly £38–40bn of annual UK sales tied to Gulf markets where many shipments normally cross Hormuz. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)

Energy exposure looks different at home. DESNZ stresses the UK’s gas supply is diversified-only about 1% of 2025 gas came from Qatar-but acknowledges that global prices still set UK bills. The regulator’s cap helps through June, yet sustained wholesale strength could lift tariffs later in the year if Hormuz disruptions persist. (gov.uk)

On the shop‑floor, the immediate finance questions are insurance and inventory. War‑risk and emergency conflict surcharges can add thousands of dollars per container; rerouting via land bridges ties up working capital and warehouse space. Discuss Incoterms and risk‑transfer points with buyers, pre‑agree who pays WRS/ECS, and build in longer lead times to protect service levels. (spglobal.com)

What to watch next: concrete maritime security arrangements that make insurers comfortable, updates from the Joint War Committee on Listed Areas, and any widening of the allied planning to restore transits. Durable cover and predictable escorts, rather than ad‑hoc convoys, will be the clearer path to lower risk premia and calmer energy pricing. (lmalloyds.com)