Keir Starmer used his pre‑G20 remarks on 22 November to press for a ceasefire framework supported by Washington and Kyiv, while pushing a financing route for Ukraine built on reparations loans linked to frozen Russian state assets. He also urged partners to cut exposure to Russian gas and to fund urgent repairs to Ukraine’s power system after repeated strikes.

For markets, the financing detail matters. The G7 shifted in 2024 toward a $50bn loan underwritten by profits generated on immobilised Russian reserves. Much of the frozen stock-about €193bn by late September-sits at Euroclear in Belgium, which says windfall profits have already channelled roughly €5bn to the EU’s Ukraine fund. Starmer’s language signals the UK wants to scale this model.

The next step under discussion is bolder: securing multi‑year loans against the frozen principal while continuing to use the income stream for debt service. The US Treasury has argued that using profits is lawful because the underlying assets remain immobilised, and Euroclear has acknowledged the EU is working on a formal reparations‑loan proposal. The legal line between income and principal will determine how large and durable this finance can be.

City exposure sits less in bank balance sheets and more in services. London’s marine insurers and brokers face tighter rules if the UK proceeds with a ban on UK shipping and insurance for Russian LNG cargoes to third countries, expected to phase in during 2026 in step with Europe. That would progressively remove UK cover from a trade lane that stayed busy even as oil sanctions bit.

Britain’s own gas position is relatively insulated. Direct imports of Russian gas were banned from 1 January 2023, with UK supply leaning on Norway and LNG from allies. But wholesale prices here still track European benchmarks, so an EU clampdown on Russian LNG can ripple into UK bills even without direct inflows.

Brussels has agreed a phased end to Russian LNG, alongside curbs on the ‘shadow fleet’ moving sanctioned energy. The glide path runs through 2026 and completes in 2027, tightening Europe’s supply options and, by extension, UK price risk via the Dutch TTF hub.

The humanitarian angle is immediate. The UK cites sustained attacks on Ukraine’s grid and says it will keep backing emergency repairs and winter resilience. The Foreign Office puts cumulative UK energy support for Ukraine above £450m, with further packages discussed alongside G7 partners.

There is execution risk in the financing architecture. Euroclear reports multiple court actions in Russia and stresses any reparations‑loan mechanism must respect international law and shield the financial market infrastructure and its clients. Without clear legal protections, costs could end up back with banks, brokers and, ultimately, customers.

For finance teams and SMEs, the near‑term checklist is practical: refresh sanctions screening for newly designated energy majors and affiliates, re‑read marine clauses for LNG exposures ahead of 2026 changes, keep audit‑ready OFSI records, and test cash‑flows against a plausible winter price swing. October’s US and UK actions against Rosneft and Lukoil came with brief wind‑downs that expired around 21 November, raising compliance stakes for stragglers.

What to watch next: discussions on the G20 sidelines and the European Commission’s formal reparations‑loan blueprint. If leaders land the legal design, Ukraine gets multi‑year funding with limited new taxes in donor countries; if not, expect more piecemeal packages. Either way, London’s energy and insurance markets will be adjusting well before next winter.