The Prime Minister hosted Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever at Downing Street on Friday, 12 December. Beyond the standard references to migration and security, both leaders signalled ongoing work with European partners on financing Ukraine using the value of immobilised Russian sovereign assets-a line with clear market consequences.

The timing is not accidental. Brussels is advancing plans to indefinitely immobilise roughly €210 billion of Russian central bank assets held in the EU, removing the six‑monthly renewal risk and paving the way for leaders to consider a large loan for Kyiv at the 18 December summit.

Most of that stock sits at Euroclear in Brussels. Company updates point to around €193–195 billion related to sanctioned Russian assets on Euroclear’s balance sheet this year, with interest income from the cash balances reaching about €2.7 billion in the first half of 2025 as blocked coupons and redemptions continue to accumulate.

Crucially, EU law already diverts the net profits from these immobilised balances to Ukraine on a biannual schedule. The Council’s May 2024 decision created the windfall‑contribution mechanism for EU central securities depositories; Euroclear says its cumulative transfers to the European Fund for Ukraine are now around €5 billion, with roughly 10% retained to meet capital and risk requirements.

Belgium, as Euroclear’s home state, taxes the interest earnings tied to these assets. Public figures indicate about €1.7 billion in Belgian corporate tax revenue in 2024 linked to Russia‑related balances-funds the Belgian government has said would help finance support to Ukraine.

Ambition is rising beyond the profit stream. Alongside the G7’s previously agreed $50 billion loan backed by future windfall profits, the EU is debating a much larger, zero‑interest ‘reparations loan’ that would be secured on the immobilised assets themselves. Depending on design, figures floated range from about €140 billion to €165 billion, with leaders due to revisit options on 18 December.

With bigger moves come bigger legal risks. Russia’s central bank has filed suit in Moscow against Euroclear and denounced EU proposals as violations of sovereign immunity. The European Commission counters that the approach is legally robust and provides protections for institutions like Euroclear, including offsetting provisions already embedded in EU law.

For UK investors, two points stand out. First, the profit‑capture channel is already operating without touching principal, turning interest earned on the immobilised balances into predictable biannual flows to Ukraine. Second, if leaders endorse a larger loan secured on the immobilised pool, EU‑level issuance could climb in 2026–27, adding supply in highly rated paper and shaping euro swap spreads and collateral demand.

Belgium’s political stake explains the choreography. Euroclear’s central role, the country’s tax take, and the push to shield the clearing house from litigation all feed into Brussels’ calculus. A structure that clearly limits Euroclear’s exposure and clarifies Belgium’s legal protections raises the odds of a larger financing package moving forward.

For the UK, alignment is primarily about sanctions policy and financial plumbing. London is not part of the EU scheme, but today’s language signals cooperation on how cash flows move from Euroclear to EU facilities and, potentially, how any future loan secured on the immobilised assets interacts with UK sanctions law.

Near‑term watch items are straightforward: the EU’s formal step on indefinite immobilisation, summit conclusions on 18 December, and Euroclear’s next disclosure on sanction‑related income. Together they will show whether this remains a steady biannual cash‑flow story or becomes a broader financing platform for Kyiv from 2026.

Migration cooperation also featured in the talks, with the UK welcoming tighter work with Belgium on returns, readmissions and law‑enforcement collaboration. That has limited near‑term market impact, but it rounds out the political bargain underpinning today’s Downing Street readout.