Downing Street confirmed on 6 March that the Prime Minister spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman following Iranian strikes across the region. The UK is deploying additional fighter jets, helicopters and a destroyer, and stands ready to support Saudi defence if required. Both sides also agreed to step up intelligence cooperation to protect civilians. (gov.uk)

For markets, the key line in the readout was energy. The Crown Prince set out measures Saudi Arabia has taken to support global oil supply and market stability. That signal landed as Brent crude pushed above $90 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since 2023, underscoring how geopolitics is now doing the heavy lifting in price formation. (gov.uk)

The government note did not specify which supply tools Riyadh is using, but historically Saudi Arabia has relied on spare capacity and OPEC+ coordination when stabilising markets. With the producers’ group recently pausing planned output increases for March, any near‑term easing of prices will hinge more on risk premium fading than fresh barrels. (investing.com)

Closer to home, the mechanics of UK energy bills create a timing cushion. Ofgem has already set the price cap for 1 April to 30 June at £1,641 for a typical dual‑fuel household, a 7% fall versus Q1. Households shouldn’t see an immediate spike from this week’s oil move, but if wholesale costs stay elevated into spring, the July cap could reflect it. (ofgem.gov.uk)

Forecourts react faster. RAC data show average UK petrol and diesel prices have started to edge up this week-roughly 2.5p per litre for petrol and more than 3p for diesel since the weekend, with national averages around 133p and 142p respectively earlier in the week. That squeeze flows straight into business logistics and consumer spend. (media.rac.co.uk)

On inflation, higher oil introduces a fresh upside risk just as the disinflation story was improving. Oxford Economics estimates the Middle East shock could add around 0.4 percentage points to UK inflation in 2026 if sustained, while a shorter‑lived spike might add nearer 0.3 points, according to NIESR‑style scenario work cited in UK coverage this week. Rate‑setters will be watching the duration, not just the level. (mpamag.com)

A practical marker for investors and finance directors is the physical flow risk through the Strait of Hormuz-roughly a fifth of global crude and LNG transits the channel. Prolonged disruption there is the pathway to stickier premia, tighter refinery margins and costlier shipping, rather than a one‑off headline jump. (apnews.com)

Our read: the April cap offers households and SMEs a short window to reassess budgets while monitoring Brent’s weekly closes and crack spreads. If crude holds near or above $90 for several weeks, expect more expensive fixed‑price energy deals to return, firmer pump prices, and renewed pressure on inflation‑sensitive sectors like transport, food and hospitality. (apnews.com)

Politically, London and Riyadh agreeing to stay in close touch puts energy security alongside defence coordination. For UK readers, the through‑line is clear: stability in Gulf supply routes tempers both petrol prices and the path of UK inflation; instability does the opposite. We’ll track the data, not the noise, over the coming days. (gov.uk)