A political row about Budget leaks has turned into a live question for the economy. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane branded the months of pre‑Budget briefings a “fiscal fandango” that has “paralysed” decisions by firms and households. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander rejected the claim, saying speculation happens every year and urging people to wait for the statement. The Chancellor delivers the Budget on Wednesday 26 November.

Alexander added that the process has unfolded on “shifting sands,” pointing to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s looming productivity downgrade and a tough global backdrop. Pressed on whether leaks hurt the economy, she said there’s always chatter before Budgets. She also declined to rule out a future pay‑per‑mile system for electric vehicles while confirming extra help for EV buyers.

Haldane’s warning goes beyond politics. His argument is that prolonged policy guesswork freezes decision‑making. He told the BBC it was the “single biggest reason why growth has flatlined,” adding that the Budget process has become “too lengthy, too leaky, with real costs” over many years. Ministers dispute that characterisation, but the charge is clear: weeks of will‑they/won’t‑they on tax have an economic price.

The high‑frequency data tilt Haldane’s way. GfK’s consumer confidence index fell two points to −19 in November, with the ‘major purchase’ measure sliding as households held back. The Office for National Statistics reported a 1.1% drop in retail sales volumes in October, with analysts citing caution ahead of Black Friday and the Budget. S&P Global’s flash PMI also flagged a pause in spending decisions.

Corporate sentiment shows the same pattern. The Bank of England’s November Monetary Policy Report notes subdued investment intentions, with its Agents saying some firms are delaying projects until after the Autumn Budget. The Decision Maker Panel also reports elevated uncertainty near post‑2022 highs. In short: policy noise is now part of the investment hurdle rate.

Factory data reinforce the point. The CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey recorded the sharpest three‑month output fall since 2020, with its economists blaming delayed orders and investment amid tax speculation ahead of 26 November. That doesn’t prove leaks caused the slump, but the timing is awkward.

On tax, the government has stepped back from the most contentious move. After weeks of signalling that income tax rates could rise, Rachel Reeves has decided against that option following better‑than‑expected fiscal updates, according to multiple briefings. Attention has shifted to a likely extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds and a basket of smaller measures. Economists estimate a two‑year threshold freeze would raise roughly £7.5bn via fiscal drag.

The politics of leaking hasn’t gone away. Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle condemned the “hokey cokey” nature of the pre‑Budget briefings and warned ministers that major announcements belong to Parliament first. The Conservatives have demanded an inquiry into leaks; shadow chancellor Mel Stride wrote to the Treasury’s most senior official saying such briefings have “real world consequences.”

Expect cost‑of‑living offsets alongside revenue raisers. Reeves has confirmed rail fares in England will be frozen in 2026 for the first time in around 30 years-a clear signal to commuters and high‑street businesses that the Treasury wants to support spending power even as taxes rise elsewhere.

Welfare policy could also shift. Reports indicate the Chancellor is preparing to remove the two‑child benefit cap, a change with an estimated fiscal cost north of £3bn. Independent estimates suggest scrapping the cap could lift roughly 350,000 to 470,000 children out of poverty, depending on the methodology. Markets will watch how any welfare expansion is balanced against tax rises and the fiscal rules.

What matters for investors, business owners and households is clarity on Wednesday 26 November: the final OBR numbers, the exact mix of thresholds and smaller taxes, any moves on EV road charging, and whether cost‑of‑living support offsets the drag on demand. The data show confidence is brittle; a clear path could steady it, while more stop‑start signalling risks another month of deferred decisions.