Markets took the Budget in their stride. There was no sharp sell‑off or gilt scare on the day, a small but meaningful win for a government that knows investor calm keeps debt‑service costs contained. For business, fewer shocks matter more than rhetoric right now.

The fiscal mix leans heavy on revenue. Roughly £26bn in extra tax is pencilled in alongside a higher wage floor and rising welfare spend. Official projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility still show sluggish growth through to 2030 and public debt hovering at elevated levels, which will keep the Treasury’s room for manoeuvre tight.

Politically, the centrepiece is lifting the cap on extra support for larger families, with a child poverty strategy due later in the week. No 10 will sell it as both moral and economically rational, paired with a rail fares freeze and help with energy bills to blunt pressure on household budgets.

Inside Westminster, Labour MPs sound noticeably brighter. One senior figure described the move as a restatement of values that many backbenchers had wanted to see. It doesn’t fix every internal scrape, but it gives the whips a cleaner story after months of second‑guessing over what Keir Starmer stands for.

From the C‑suite, the tone is pragmatic rather than jubilant. Leaders quoted this week argued that while £26bn of extra tax is hardly standard fare, stability may be the bigger prize if it ends daily politicking. The best‑case, they say, is a steadier policy runway that coaxes investment off the sidelines when few peers globally are racing ahead.

Public opinion is cooler. Early polling gives little credit to the package. With income tax thresholds frozen, more than a million people will pay the levy for the first time, hardly a vote‑winner. Inflation is expected to run hotter this year than previously forecast and the OBR’s assessment of spending‑power growth is, in its own word, dismal.

A separate row over workers’ rights clipped the Budget’s afterglow. Ministers signalled a partial retreat on day‑one protection from unfair dismissal, frustrating unions and puzzling some Labour figures on timing. Few expect an all‑out bust‑up, but the episode undercuts the idea that the Budget settled internal nerves for good.

The growth argument is now out in the open. Executives warn that a higher minimum wage, rising business rates for many firms and a heavier tax take could cool hiring just when confidence needs a lift. Ministers counter with support for Heathrow expansion, new nuclear and faster planning, and frame anti‑poverty steps as long‑term investment in future workers.

Credibility is another pressure point. The OBR told the Treasury weeks earlier that stronger receipts had softened the fiscal picture, yet the message of an unavoidable hole persisted. The opposition calls that misleading; Downing Street rejects the charge. Markets price trust-if it thins, gilt yields do the talking.

For investors and SMEs, the base case is stability with tighter margins. Refresh 2025 cash‑flow models for higher wage and rate bills, stress‑test hiring plans and watch May’s elections for a fresh read‑across to policy nerve. Best case, calmer politics frees up capex; worst case, firms pause recruitment and growth stays meagre.