Westminster has published its response to the Migration Advisory Committee’s review of the Seasonal Worker route, setting the policy baseline on 29 January 2026. For growers, labour providers and retailers, the headline is certainty: ministers reaffirm a multi‑year runway and promise two years’ notice before any closure, barring security or immigration risks. (gov.uk)

That five‑year horizon was first set out on 25 February 2025 at the NFU conference and reiterated in Parliament: 45,000 visas for 2025, of which 43,000 for horticulture and 2,000 for poultry; the NFU says around 42,900 are in place for 2026. This gives farms a planning window through to 2030, with annual allocations still reviewed. (theguardian.com)

Operationally, the key change already in force is flexibility on re‑entry. From 11 November 2025, the cooling‑off period drops from six months to four, and time in the UK is capped at six months in any rolling ten‑month window. In practice, crews can bridge early spring daffodils and asparagus with summer soft fruit more smoothly. (gov.uk)

Ministers declined the MAC’s idea of allowing any six‑month block within a calendar year, arguing it would complicate right‑to‑work checks and raise non‑compliance risks. For scheme operators and farm HR teams, the instruction is clear: build rosters and record‑keeping around the new ten‑month reference period. (gov.uk)

On worker pay protection, the government has not adopted a blanket guarantee of two months’ earnings. Instead it points to the Employer Pays Principle (EPP) as the better fix for pre‑arrival costs such as visas and flights, while acknowledging that any change needs careful funding design across the supply chain. (gov.uk)

A feasibility study commissioned by Defra and the Seasonal Worker Taskforce modelled how EPP could work. One scenario suggests household grocery bills might rise by roughly three pence a week if recruiters, farms and retailers absorb recruitment costs rather than workers. Two scheme operators have run small pilots and industry is weighing the findings. (freshproduce.org.uk)

Enforcement is also being strengthened. A new Fair Work Agency, chaired by Matthew Taylor and due to launch in April 2026, will bring together HMRC’s minimum wage unit, the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority and the Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate. Expect more proactive inspections and public naming of offenders. (gov.uk)

Alongside that shift, UK Visas and Immigration has begun bi‑monthly meetings with scheme sponsors to monitor compliance and flag issues early. Sponsors should assume deeper scrutiny of accommodation, transport, piece‑rate conversions to hourly pay, and onboarding under the new ten‑month rule. (gov.uk)

Payroll housekeeping matters too. HMRC says it has simplified the P85 tax refund process, and ministers have again ruled out exempting seasonal workers from pension auto‑enrolment. Employers can still use the three‑month postponement where appropriate, but must assess eligibility and pay contributions where due. (gov.uk)

What does this mean for costs? If EPP becomes standard, growers will shift from worker‑paid to employer‑paid recruitment outlays and will seek contribution mechanisms with buyers to protect margins. Given modelling of low per‑household impacts, retailers may accept small pass‑throughs, but contracts should be updated to reflect any new cost‑sharing rules. (thebureauinvestigates.com)

The immediate watchlist: confirm 2027 visa numbers early, track the Fair Work Agency’s budget and guidance ahead of April 2026, and monitor industry agreement on EPP. The direction is stable labour supply with tighter oversight - favouring operators who plan early, document thoroughly and price transparently. (gov.uk)