Brent crude hovered near $110 a barrel on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz concentrated minds in energy and shipping. The White House has warned that bridges and power plants could be hit if talks fail by Tuesday night US time, a threat that has kept a risk premium embedded in prices and moved UK energy and logistics back to the top of boardroom agendas. AP and the Guardian both reported the new deadline and targeting language, while market moves were tracked by Axios. (apnews.com)

Why Hormuz matters is straightforward: in peacetime roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum consumption transits this narrow waterway. The International Energy Agency has described today’s effective closure as the greatest energy security threat in modern history, with constrained Qatari LNG adding pressure to gas benchmarks even if Europe buys less LNG from Qatar than Asia. Figures on volumes come via AP; the assessment has been reported by Le Monde. (apnews.com)

London’s marine market says cover remains available – at a price. Lloyd’s of London has stressed that hull and cargo insurance for Gulf voyages is still being written, even as policy terms are tightened. Earlier in March, some underwriters issued cancellation notices to reassess exposure amid rising attacks. The Guardian reported both the availability and the repricing dynamic across the market. (theguardian.com)

The cost step‑change is visible in war‑risk premiums. Industry reporting indicates rates moving from peacetime levels around 0.25% of hull value to roughly 1% in early March, with brokers later citing 3.5%–7.5% in peak periods – translating to $2–$3m per VLCC voyage before any additional surcharges. Caixin Global and the Guardian have detailed these ranges. (caixinglobal.com)

With risk still elevated in the Red Sea and Gulf, carriers have been routing around the Cape of Good Hope. That adds about 10–14 days on Asia–Europe sailings and lifts bunker consumption and charter rates – costs that trickle down into UK delivered prices. UKMTO‑referenced data also show daily Hormuz transits far below the historical ~138 per day, at only a handful since the war began, according to Al Jazeera’s reporting. (shippingintelligencehub.com)

UK pump prices have reacted. Bloomberg reports unleaded rising by roughly 4–5 pence per litre in a week to the highest level since August 2024 – an early sign that the crude risk premium is feeding through to forecourts and to diesel‑heavy businesses like hauliers and builders’ merchants. (bloomberg.com)

Household energy bills are on a different clock. Ofgem’s price cap fell by about 7% on 1 April for Q2, easing bills for now, but analysts warn the July cap could rebound if wholesale costs stay elevated into late spring. Ofgem set the current level; MoneyWeek, citing Cornwall Insight, flags the near‑term upside risk. (ofgem.gov.uk)

For a Midlands bakery running energy‑intensive ovens, the immediate pinch is higher diesel on flour deliveries and a limited window to lock in summer electricity before any cap uplift. The practical response is dull but effective: tighten delivery schedules, accelerate LED and heat‑recovery upgrades already modelled to pay back within two years, and ask suppliers to quote with and without temporary fuel surcharges so pass‑throughs are transparent to retail customers.

Manufacturers feel it through both ends: pricier inputs and stretched lead times. A plastics plant in Yorkshire buying naphtha‑linked feedstocks may see invoices re‑baselined weekly rather than monthly, while containerised inputs take two extra weeks to arrive. Finance teams should model three crude paths – $95, $110 and $125 Brent – and run cash‑flow sensitivities on each for Q2–Q3. That keeps working‑capital conversations grounded in numbers rather than headlines.

On procurement and logistics, talk to brokers early. Confirm whether your routes now attract additional war‑risk and bunker surcharges, and whether your policy includes the Joint War Committee’s latest listed areas. If you export to the Gulf, ask carriers for Cape vs transhipment options and get service‑level clarity in writing; if you’re shipping temperature‑controlled goods, verify power‑at‑port availability on diverted calls to avoid spoilage costs.

Markets are also adjusting their longer‑dated view. Goldman Sachs has lifted its average 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77, arguing that reduced Hormuz flows and higher risk premia will linger even if convoys or political deals restore some traffic. That matters for budget setting because it nudges long‑run assumptions higher than many UK plans still use. Bloomberg carried the bank’s latest revisions. (bloomberg.com)

What happens next will set the tone for the summer. AP notes the White House has shifted deadlines more than once, while Axios reports Washington is simultaneously signalling negotiations and escalation. If escorts begin and insurers narrow premiums, that eases the war‑premium element; if tonight’s deadline slips or strikes expand, plan for another leg higher in transport and fuel costs before any relief arrives. (apnews.com)