The government has given growers a clearer runway. In its formal response to the Migration Advisory Committee’s Seasonal Worker review published on 29 January 2026, ministers reaffirm the route’s five‑year continuation-building on the 25 February 2025 pledge-and commit to giving the sector two years’ notice of any future closure except in extreme cases. For farm operators, that means planning with confidence through 2030. (gov.uk)

That certainty matters. Home Office statistics show 38,039 Seasonal Worker visas were granted in the year to June 2025, within a 45,000 cap for 2025, with around 78% of visas going to workers from Central Asian countries. Those numbers underpin peak‑season capacity in soft fruit, veg and packhouses each summer. (gov.uk)

Flexibility edges forward too. The Home Office intends to shorten the visa cooling‑off period from six months to four months, but has rejected the idea of allowing any six‑month stint within a calendar year, citing mid‑year demand spikes and right‑to‑work complexity. In practice, farms gain a little more room to plan returns across successive harvests, without the option to split non‑contiguous six‑month blocks inside one year. (gov.uk)

On pay, ministers have steered away from the MAC’s proposal to guarantee two months’ wages to cover migration costs, arguing instead that exploring the Employer Pays Principle (EPP) is the more workable fix. HMRC, meanwhile, updated guidance and processes around the P85 tax refund in 2024; seasonal staff can claim back overpaid PAYE when they leave, while auto‑enrolment remains in place. Employers should help workers complete this cleanly at exit. (gov.uk)

Compliance is tightening. From 7 April 2026, the new Fair Work Agency will consolidate enforcement across minimum wage, agency standards and the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority, with Matthew Taylor appointed as chair. UK Visas & Immigration has also moved to bi‑monthly meetings with scheme sponsors, so growers should expect closer scrutiny of records, deductions and accommodation standards. (business.gov.uk)

On EPP, government accepts that industry should examine how to make it work, while warning that shifting recruitment, visa and travel costs to employers could add materially to supply‑chain outlays and influence food prices. DEFRA and the Seasonal Worker Scheme Taskforce commissioned a feasibility study, and two scheme operators are running small pilots this year to test real‑world mechanics. Retailers, labour providers and farms will have to agree who ultimately pays. (gov.uk)

What might it cost? Trade press reporting of one analysis suggests EPP could add roughly £43m a year across UK horticulture. A government‑commissioned study, reported by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, estimates that if costs were fully passed through the chain, the average household impact would be around 3p per week-small per basket, but meaningful for thin‑margin producers. (thegrocer.co.uk)

Context on prices helps frame this. The British Retail Consortium’s index shows food inflation at 3.3% year‑on‑year in December 2025, with fresh food at 3.8%, while overall shop price inflation was just 0.7%. If EPP costs land alongside higher wages and packaging bills, retailers will try to smooth the pass‑through, but some uplift on fresh produce looks likely. (brc.org.uk)

Operationally, farms should now reset 2026–27 workforce plans around a four‑month cooling‑off assumption, map peak weeks by crop, and invest in retention to curb re‑recruitment. Build pricing with a labour line that reflects multiple EPP scenarios-one where employers shoulder visa and travel, another with shared costs written into contracts-and keep onboarding, timesheets and payslips watertight ahead of the agency shake‑up.

For buyers and scheme operators, the task is to front‑load cost‑sharing talks. Agree how any EPP‑related fees convert into pence‑per‑punnet or pence‑per‑kilo, set review triggers if policy timing shifts, and fold clearer tax and pension guidance into onboarding so workers arrive and leave without administrative shocks.

From here, the watch‑list is short but important: the Home Office timetable for legislating the four‑month cooling‑off; publication of the EPP pilot findings; and the Fair Work Agency’s enforcement policy ahead of 7 April 2026. Together, these will determine whether policy certainty converts into predictable labour volumes and steadier input costs into the next decade. (gov.uk)