Downing Street said Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with US President Donald Trump on 22 March. The two leaders discussed the Middle East and agreed the Strait of Hormuz should reopen to restore global shipping and stabilise energy markets, adding they would speak again soon. (gov.uk)

Why it matters is straightforward. The International Energy Agency estimates around 20 million barrels per day of crude and oil products and over 110 bcm of LNG passed through Hormuz in 2025-about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. By contrast, container exposure is small at roughly 2–3% of global volumes, according to Freightos, which means energy is the main price driver here. (iea.org)

Markets are already reacting. AP reported Brent crude briefly topped $119 per barrel on Thursday 19 March before easing, while Axios noted prices hovering near $111 on Sunday night, underscoring how sensitive traders remain to signs of safe passage. (apnews.com)

Insurance has become the pinch point as much as geopolitics. The Guardian reported leading markets issued notices in early March to cancel or reprice war‑risk cover for Gulf voyages; Lloyd’s of London has since stressed hull and cargo insurance remains available but often with tighter terms and exclusions. Separately, Hapag‑Lloyd has introduced a war‑risk surcharge and suspended Hormuz transits where security closures apply. (theguardian.com)

The knock‑on effects go beyond oil. AP has flagged broader supply chain pressures as ships wait in the Gulf or detour around Africa, affecting flows of pharmaceuticals from India, electronics, and oil‑derived inputs such as fertilisers-costs that can filter into UK retail and factory budgets over the coming weeks. (apnews.com)

For UK finance teams, the playbook is pragmatic. Revisit fuel hedges and shipping contracts, allow for higher bunker and insurance surcharges on Gulf‑linked cargoes, and build extra slack-two to three weeks-in lead times where Middle East components or feedstocks are critical. Speak to brokers about voyage‑by‑voyage war‑risk pricing, reinstatement terms and any exclusions that could affect claims.

Policy signals will matter for pricing. The US Energy Information Administration said reduced Hormuz shipments and some shut‑in production are already feeding through, and its March outlook assumes further declines if closures persist. Concrete steps such as naval escorts, coordinated stock releases and a credible reopening plan would help steady expectations. Downing Street says the PM and President will speak again soon. (eia.gov)

Into the week, watch verified tanker movements, any changes to P&I and war‑risk cover terms, and whether Brent holds above the $100 mark. For now, the balance of risk sits less with global spare capacity and more with the practicalities-insurance, security, and diplomacy-that determine whether barrels can actually move.