Downing Street confirmed that on Saturday 15 March 2026 the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke with US President Donald Trump. The readout said both leaders discussed the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to end the disruption to global shipping that is pushing up costs, and the Prime Minister offered condolences for American personnel killed in the conflict. They agreed to stay in close contact. (gov.uk)

Why this matters for prices is straightforward. The Strait of Hormuz moves more than a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and around one‑fifth of global LNG. In 2023, flows averaged 20.9 million barrels per day-roughly 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption-leaving few workarounds if traffic stops. That concentration risk is what turns a regional flashpoint into a global cost shock. (eia.gov)

The market backdrop is tense. Major outlets report that tanker traffic through Hormuz has been heavily curtailed amid the Iran conflict, with the International Energy Agency coordinating emergency oil stock releases to calm prices. Marine insurers have hiked war‑risk premiums-quotes near 3 percent of a vessel’s value have been cited-multiplying voyage costs and sidelining tonnage until cover is secured. Those costs show up quickly in delivered energy prices and, by extension, in inflation. (apnews.com)

Shipping fuel costs are already reacting. Industry sources note sharp rises in bunker prices across Singapore and Rotterdam following the latest oil spike, while major carriers have begun adding emergency fuel surcharges to ocean freight. CMA CGM, for example, has announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge from 23 March, signalling that higher fuel bills will be passed through to shippers within days. UK importers and exporters should expect freight invoices to reflect these add‑ons almost immediately. (engine.online)

Direct UK exposure to Hormuz varies by commodity. On gas, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) data show the US supplied 68 percent of UK LNG imports in 2024, with Qatar down to 8 percent-the lowest in over a decade-so physical dependency has eased since 2022. That helps, but it doesn’t insulate UK prices from global benchmarks when Gulf cargoes are offline. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)

Even so, the UK’s link to Qatar is set to grow over time: QatarEnergy began utilising up to 7.2 million tonnes per year of long‑term capacity at the Isle of Grain terminal from mid‑2025. Actual flows will track price signals, but the logistics still depend on Hormuz remaining navigable. (lngindustry.com)

On oil products, the UK is diversified on diesel-largely supplied by the US and North‑West Europe-but jet fuel is more exposed to the Gulf. DESNZ’s security of supply report shows Kuwait accounted for about 38 percent of UK jet fuel imports in 2024, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia also significant. Those shipments ordinarily pass through Hormuz, meaning any prolonged closure would pressure aviation costs first. (gov.uk)

Inflation mechanics are well understood. The Bank of England’s August 2025 analysis suggests a 10 percent oil price rise is associated with a peak increase in UK CPI of around 0.5 percentage points, with additional gas price rises compounding the effect. Ofgem’s price cap means wholesale gas shocks filter into household bills with a lag over roughly three quarters, but fuel and freight costs move much faster. (bankofengland.co.uk)

Policy timelines matter for pricing. Washington is weighing naval escorts to restore safe passage, but even with convoys in place, insurers, owners and charterers will take time to normalise cover and schedules. And while Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline and the UAE’s link to Fujairah can bypass Hormuz, combined spare capacity is limited versus typical Gulf exports-insufficient to replace a full closure. (axios.com)

What to do now if you run budgets or supply chains: assume higher bunker surcharges and index‑linked road fuel add‑ons through at least late March and build that into landed‑cost models; check contracts for war‑risk and EFS pass‑through clauses and re‑price customer quotes where needed; and, for energy‑intensive operations, review hedging and flexible procurement windows given the volatility seen this month. These are practical housekeeping steps rather than heroics, but they protect cashflow when costs swing.

For planning scenarios, treat a swift reopening as a best case and a staggered, insurance‑driven restart as the base case. The OBR has already warned that the Middle East shock could leave UK inflation closer to 3 percent by year‑end than previously expected, which-if sustained-would complicate rate‑cut timing. That makes near‑term resilience planning for SMEs less about guessing oil’s peak and more about managing pass‑through. (theguardian.com)

The politics will continue. Saturday’s Starmer–Trump call signals top‑level intent to reopen Hormuz and stabilise shipping. Until that happens on the water and in the insurance market, UK businesses should budget for firmer energy and freight costs and keep decision‑making tight to data from official sources and carrier advisories. (gov.uk)