Downing Street confirmed that Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday 15 March, focusing on the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The leaders are due to meet today, Monday 16 March, to continue those talks - a diplomatic track with direct consequences for UK energy costs and business logistics. (gov.uk)

Markets have already priced in the disruption. Brent crude opened the week above $100 and traded around $104–105 per barrel on Monday morning, as reports described shipping through Hormuz as effectively halted. That combination keeps an inflation pulse alive just as central banks were hoping for calm. (AP) (apnews.com)

Why this choke point matters: roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and a sizable share of LNG usually transit Hormuz, and export flows are now running at less than 10% of pre‑conflict levels, according to the International Energy Agency. That loss of seaborne supply underpins higher crude and refined product prices even if some barrels can bypass via Saudi and UAE pipelines. (IEA/AP) (iea.org)

Knock‑on effects are building in freight. Maersk has suspended new bookings into key Upper Gulf markets and is reviewing existing ones case‑by‑case, while Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have introduced extra charges tied to the conflict. S&P Global cites war‑risk surcharges around $1,500 per TEU at Hapag‑Lloyd and emergency freight increases at Maersk, with CMA CGM’s notices detailing an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of $2,000–$4,000 per container on affected lanes. (maersk.com)

Insurance is the other cost line moving sharply. Major P&I clubs announced cancellations of Gulf war‑risk cover effective 5 March, with market guidance suggesting premiums jumping from c.0.2–0.3% toward 0.5–1.0% of hull value on high‑risk voyages - adding hundreds of thousands of dollars to a typical tanker’s trip. (The Guardian/Al Jazeera via Reuters) (theguardian.com)

UK motorists are starting to feel it. The RAC says average petrol rose by nearly 8p per litre between 28 February and 13 March, with diesel up almost 13p - the sharpest weekly move since 2023. If Brent stabilises around $100 and sterling stays soft, RAC estimates suggest pump prices pushing towards 140p for petrol and 167p for diesel. (media.rac.co.uk)

Gas is not immune. Kpler reports a 55% spike in Europe’s TTF benchmark from late February to early March, while Energy Voice notes the UK’s NBP price jumped almost 45% after Qatar halted LNG output and shipping faced Hormuz constraints. The UK’s diversified LNG slate helps, but South Hook and Grain’s Qatar links mean price volatility transmits quickly. (kpler.com)

For a mid‑sized plastics manufacturer in the Midlands importing polymer feedstocks, two containers a month now carry extra conflict surcharges of roughly $3,000–$6,000, before any bunker surcharges tied to dearer oil. If carriers divert to offload in Jeddah and truck freight into the Gulf, lead times can stretch and working capital gets tied up longer. (S&P Global/Le Monde; carrier advisories) (spglobal.com)

Aviation faces a pricier jet‑fuel bill and awkward routing. BloombergNEF notes jet fuel’s vulnerability versus other refined products when crude spikes and flows are constrained, which raises airline operating costs just as summer schedules are set. That filters through to ticket pricing with a lag, especially on long‑haul routes touching the Middle East and Asia. (about.bnef.com)

Policy backstops are in motion. The IEA approved a record 400 million‑barrel emergency stock release on 11 March to cushion crude supply, though it cannot substitute for all Gulf flows or rectify LNG tightness. In parallel, Washington is canvassing allies on a naval effort to reopen Hormuz; any credible security corridor would be the fastest route to stabilising prices. (IEA/Axios) (iea.org)

For UK inflation, the risk is a renewed hump rather than a re‑run of 2022. The British Chambers of Commerce warns higher energy costs will keep CPI stickier through 2026, while bank economists flag a slower path to interest‑rate cuts if oil stays three‑digits and wholesale gas holds its gains. That calculus frames today’s Starmer‑Carney meeting: energy security is economic policy. (Yahoo Finance/Deutsche Bank commentary) (uk.finance.yahoo.com)

What managers can do now is practical, not heroic: get a fresh read from forwarders on surcharges and feasible routings; revisit fuel clauses and indexation in supplier contracts; and lock in near‑term energy hedges where policy allows. The priority is cash conversion - higher in‑transit inventory and pricier freight are balance‑sheet events as much as headline risk. (Carrier advisories; market updates) (cma-cgm.com)