Dubai International Airport has become the world’s largest international gateway. Dubai Airports reported more than 92 million passengers in 2024, ahead of London Heathrow on just under 83 million. Add Abu Dhabi and Doha and the two peers handled a further 87 million travellers, with the three hubs routinely hosting more than 3,000 flights a day between Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.

That rhythm broke in late February 2026 as strikes on Iran triggered widespread airspace closures. Aircraft turned back mid-journey, wide-bodies sat on stands, and tens of thousands of transit passengers were stuck in terminals and hotels across the UAE and Qatar, according to BBC reporting. Regular flying has resumed, but schedules remain thinner and prone to short-notice changes.

Emirates and Etihad moved first with limited services to repatriate travellers, followed by Qatar Airways. Several governments, including the UK, chartered aircraft to help citizens depart, the BBC reported. Data firm Cirium estimates more than 30,000 services to the wider Middle East have been cancelled since the conflict began, underscoring how fragile the restart remains.

Fuel costs compound the disruption. With refinery exports constrained after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Europe - which typically sources about half of its jet fuel from the Gulf - saw prices double from pre-conflict levels, based on industry figures cited by the BBC. Some airlines have already trimmed flying to protect margins.

For UK households and SMEs, a mix of thinner schedules and pricier fuel tends to feed through to firmer fares within a few months. It also narrows the choice of departure days and raises the risk of missed connections, especially on long-haul trips to South and South-East Asia that rely on a single Gulf stop.

Travellers’ confidence matters as much as capacity. Ian Scott, flying Melbourne–Venice via Doha, saw his flight turn back mid-air, then spent days in a hotel before driving across the desert to Oman to fly out. He now plans to avoid Gulf routings even after hostilities cease - an anecdote that captures the reputational challenge operators must address.

That challenge bites because these hubs are built on transit. OAG data show that in 2024, 47% of passengers at Dubai were connecting, rising to 54% in Abu Dhabi and 74% in Doha. If even a small share of that cohort re-routes, load factors and yields at peak connection times can shift quickly.

The Gulf model blends the reach of hub-and-spoke with the convenience of one-stop long-haul. Airlines time waves of 90–100 arrivals to feed onward departures an hour or two later, OAG’s John Grant has explained. Geography helps: as Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy notes, a Gulf departure sits within roughly three hours of markets from the Middle East to the Indian subcontinent - close enough to make one-stop to almost anywhere work.

Fleet choices reinforced the model. The Boeing 777 offered range and density; later, the Airbus A380 let carriers move more than 500 passengers through constrained slots. Former Etihad chief James Hogan has argued that starting with a blank sheet allowed Gulf airlines to design products and networks rivals in Europe and North America struggled to match.

Crucially, that capacity reset long-haul pricing. By adding seats and creating new flows, Gulf carriers pushed average fares down on many city pairs, according to Charlton. Remove a meaningful slice of that capacity for long and prices will rise - the arithmetic is difficult to escape.

European airlines are adjusting. British Airways has added extra services to Bangkok and Singapore, while Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have increased Asia flying to offer routings that avoid a Gulf stop. Yet IATA’s Willie Walsh cautions that European carriers cannot replace the roughly 9.5% of global capacity the Gulf airlines usually provide, and he expects a sharp rebound once the conflict eases.

The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the behavioural shift. Baker Institute scholar Kristian Coates Ulrichsen warns that recurring closures and drone intercepts can keep risk perceptions elevated long after the last missile is intercepted. Trivago chief Johannes Thomas thinks it could take two to three years for safety concerns to fade. Others, like Hogan, are more upbeat, pointing to aviation’s record of bouncing back after shocks from SARS to Covid.

For planners in the UK - travel managers, exporters and families - the near-term playbook is practical: book earlier, build more time into connections, consider Asian hubs such as Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong or Tokyo, and expect sporadic promos but a firmer floor under fares while fuel remains elevated. Cargo-exposed SMEs should also watch surcharges and transit times as routings shift.

What matters next are three signals: how durable airspace access is, where jet fuel spreads settle into summer, and how quickly Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways rebuild their connection banks. If tensions ease quickly, expect the Gulf carriers to come back hard with capacity and sharp pricing. If not, a chunk of long-haul traffic may settle into new patterns - at a higher cost.